"It's tough to make predictions...especially about the future." Yogi Berra

It is the end of the year, which means one thing. It is time for all of the blowhard commentators, prognasticators, economists, and banks to come out with their 2012 stock market prediction. There will be those that say the market will go up 25%, those that say the market will go down 25%, and those that play it safe and say the market will go up 7% (it’s historical average). But, it is important to know one thing, no matter what they say, it is most likely to be wrong, or even if they turn out to be right, they are just plain lucky. Nobody has any idea exactly where the market is headed in a particular year.

If you think we are wrong, chew on these facts.

• In 2008, economists forecasted the economy would grow 2.4%— it shrank -0.3% instead.
• In 2009, economists forecasted the economy would shrink only -0.8%— it shrank -3.5% instead.
• In 2001 an average of all analyst recommendations said U.S. Stocks would soar 9%— we all know how that turned out.