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"It's tough to make predictions...especially about the future." Yogi Berra
It is the end of the year, which means one thing. It is time for all of the blowhard commentators, prognasticators, economists, and banks to come out with their 2012 stock market prediction. There will be those that say the market will go up 25%, those that say the market will go down 25%, and those that play it safe and say the market will go up 7% (it’s historical average). But, it is important to know one thing, no matter what they say, it is most likely to be wrong, or even if they turn out to be right, they are just plain lucky. Nobody has any idea exactly where the market is headed in a particular year.
If you think we are wrong, chew on these facts.
- In 2008, economists forecasted the economy would grow 2.4%— it shrank -0.3% instead.
- In 2009, economists forecasted the economy would shrink only -0.8%— it shrank -3.5% instead.
- In 2001 an average of all analyst recommendations said U.S. Stocks would soar 9%— we all know how that turned out.
Is Apple a Value Stock?
IPAD 3 Launch Makes Apple $500 Bil Company
With a stock price recently toping $600 and a market capitalization over $500 Billion, a larger size than the GDP of Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan, is Apple unstoppable? An even bigger question, is Apple, with 73% sales growth, a $500 Billion value stock??? Many analysts and investors would say yes, and in an era where large companies control more and more of our economy, that is a truly scary thought.